Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues

E. Strumbelj and M. Robnik Sikonja

International Journal of Forecasting, 2010, vol. 26, issue 3, 482-488

Abstract: In this paper we examine the effectiveness of using bookmaker odds as forecasts by analyzing 10,699 matches from six major European soccer leagues and the corresponding odds from 10 different online bookmakers. We show that the odds from some bookmakers are better forecasts than those of others, and provide empirical evidence that (a) the effectiveness of using bookmaker odds as forecasts has increased over time, and (b) bookmakers offer more effective forecasts for some soccer leagues for than others.

Keywords: Sports; forecasting; Brier; score; Statistical; tests; Soccer; Betting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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