EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Forecasting national team medal totals at the Summer Olympic Games

David Forrest, Ismael Sanz () and Juan de Dios Tena ()

International Journal of Forecasting, 2010, vol. 26, issue 3, 576-588

Abstract: The paper reports the results of an exercise to forecast national team medal totals at the Beijing Olympic Games, 2008. Forecasts were released to the media before the competitions commenced. The starting point was an established statistical model based on a regression analysis of medal totals in earlier Games, with past performance and GDP among the principal covariates. However, we based our own forecasts on a model with additional regressors, including a measure of public spending on recreation. This adaptation is shown to have improved the forecasting performance. We also made subjective, judgemental adjustments before releasing our final public forecasts, and we demonstrate that this led to a further increase in accuracy. These final forecasts were successful in predicting the principal changes in medal shares relative to the 2004 Games, namely the surge in medals for China and Great Britain and the substantial fall in medals for Russia.

Keywords: Sports; forecasting; Olympic; Games; Medals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(09)00208-8
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:3:p:576-588

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman

More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

 
Page updated 2021-06-30
Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:3:p:576-588