Forecasting exchange rate volatility using high-frequency data: Is the euro different?

Georgios Chortareas, Ying Jiang and John. C. Nankervis

International Journal of Forecasting, 2011, vol. 27, issue 4, 1089-1107

Abstract: We assess the performances of alternative procedures for forecasting the daily volatility of the euro's bilateral exchange rates using 15 min data. We use realized volatility and traditional time series volatility models. Our results indicate that using high-frequency data and considering their long memory dimension enhances the performance of volatility forecasts significantly. We find that the intraday FIGARCH model and the ARFIMA model outperform other traditional models for all exchange rate series.

Keywords: Euro; exchange; rates; Volatility; forecasting; High-frequency; data; GARCH; model; Long; memory; time; series; Forecast; evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (41)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:4:p:1089-1107

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