A population dependent diffusion model with a stochastic extension

C. Michalakelis and T. Sphicopoulos

International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, vol. 28, issue 3, 587-606

Abstract: Diffusion modeling is rather broad in nature, and is important in the areas of estimation and forecasting. Conventional models do not incorporate parameters that explicitly take into account the size of the population, or, equivalently, the size of the potential market. As a consequence, the models often fail to provide accurate forecasts, especially when the diffusion process is in the take-off stage. Furthermore, since diffusion is not a strictly deterministic process, forecasts should provide a measure of the underlying uncertainty of the process by incorporating a stochastic process into the formulation of the models.

Keywords: Innovation diffusion; High technology markets; Technology estimation and forecasting; ‘‘Population” diffusion model (PDM); Stochastic diffusion models (SDM) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:3:p:587-606

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.03.002

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