 Forecasting test cricket match outcomes in playSohail Akhtar and Philip Scarf International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, vol. 28, issue 3, 632-643 Abstract: This paper forecasts match outcomes in test cricket in play, session by session. Match outcome probabilities at the start of each session are forecast using a sequence of multinomial logistic regression models. These probabilities can assist a team captain or management in considering a certain aggressive or defensive batting strategy for the coming session. We investigate how the outcome probabilities (of a win, draw, or loss) and covariate effects vary session by session. The covariates fall into two categories, pre-match effects (strengths of teams, a ground effect, home field advantage, outcome of the toss) and in-play effects (score or lead, overs-used, overs-remaining, run-rate, and wicket resources used). The results indicate that the lead has a small effect on the match outcome early on but is dominant later; pre-match team strengths, ground effect and home field advantage are important predictors of a win early on; and wicket resources used remains important throughout a match. Keywords: Multinomial logistic regression; Strategy; Betting; Sport; Probability (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:3:p:632-643 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.005 Access Statistics for this article International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier |
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