Evaluating the accuracy of value-at-risk forecasts: New multilevel tests

Arturo Leccadito, Simona Boffelli and Giovanni Urga

International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, vol. 30, issue 2, 206-216

Abstract: We propose independence and conditional coverage tests which are aimed at evaluating the accuracy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts from the same model at different confidence levels. The proposed procedures are multilevel tests, i.e., joint tests of several quantiles corresponding to different confidence levels. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo exercise, we document the superiority of the proposed tests with respect to existing multilevel tests. In an empirical application, we illustrate the implementation of the tests using several VaR models and daily data for 15 MSCI world indices.

Keywords: Risk management; Value-at-risk; Backtesting; Conditional and unconditional coverage tests; Monte Carlo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:2:p:206-216

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.014

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