 Marked point process hotspot maps for homicide and gun crime prediction in ChicagoGeorge Mohler International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, vol. 30, issue 3, 491-497 Abstract: Crime hotspot maps are a widely used and successful method of displaying spatial crime patterns and allocating police resources. However, hotspot maps are often created over a single timescale using only one crime type. In the case of short-term hotspot maps that utilize several weeks of crime data, risk estimates suffer from a high variance, especially for low frequency crimes such as homicide. Long-term hotspot maps that utilize several years of data fail to take into account near-repeat effects and emerging hotspot trends. In this paper we show how point process models of crime can be extended to include leading indicator crime types, while capturing both short-term and long-term patterns of risk, through a marked point process approach. Several years of data and many different crime types are systematically combined to yield accurate hotspot maps that can be used for the purpose of predictive policing of gun-related crime. We apply the methodology to a large, open source data set which has been made available to the general public online by the Chicago Police Department. Keywords: Marked point process; Expectation-maximization; Crime hotspot; Leading indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:3:p:491-497 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.01.004 Access Statistics for this article International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier |
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