Forecasting commodity price indexes using macroeconomic and financial predictors

Antonio Gargano and Allan Timmermann

International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, vol. 30, issue 3, 825-843

Abstract: Using a long sample of commodity spot price indexes over the period 1947–2010, we examine the out-of-sample predictability of commodity prices by means of macroeconomic and financial variables. Commodity currencies are found to have some predictive power at short (monthly and quarterly) forecast horizons, while growth in industrial production and the investment–capital ratio have some predictive power at longer (yearly) horizons. Commodity price predictability is strongest when based on multivariate approaches that account for parameter estimation error. Commodity price predictability varies substantially across economic states, being strongest during economic recessions.

Keywords: Predictability of commodity spot prices; Out-of-sample forecast performance; Recessions and expansions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (92)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920701300099X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:3:p:825-843

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.09.003

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman

More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().