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Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

Rafał Weron ()

International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, vol. 30, issue 4, 1030-1081

Abstract: A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one model’s outperformance of another.

Keywords: Electricity price forecasting; Day-ahead market; Seasonality; Autoregression; Neural network; Factor model; Forecast combination; Probabilistic forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:4:p:1030-1081