Economics at your fingertips  

Forecasters and rationality—A comment on Fritsche et al., Forecasting the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality and forecaster herding

Robert Fildes

International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, vol. 31, issue 1, 140-143

Abstract: In this commentary stimulated by Fritsche et al.’s (2014) paper on “Forecasting the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso” and the implications for forecast rationality, I first survey the literature on forecaster behaviour, and conclude that organisational and psychological factors heavily influence the characteristics of the forecasters’ errors in any particular application. Econometric models cannot decompose the error into these potential sources, due to their reliance on non-experimental data. An interdisciplinary research strategy of triangulation is needed if we are to improve both our understanding of forecaster behaviour and the value of such forecasts.

Keywords: Forecaster behaviour; Loss functions; Rationality; Interdisciplinary research (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman

More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier
Series data maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2017-09-29
Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:1:p:140-143