EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

How good are US government forecasts of the federal debt?

Andrew Martinez ()

International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, vol. 31, issue 2, 312-324

Abstract: This paper compares annual one-year-ahead and five-year-ahead forecasts from government agencies for the US gross federal debt and deficit from 1984 to 2013. Other studies have compared two of these agencies’ forecasts, but not for debt. The current paper finds that the forecast from the Analysis of the President’s Budget performs best across both horizons but does not encompass the other forecasts. Instead, each of the forecasts lacks information included by the other agencies and therefore a combination of all three outperforms all individual forecasts.

Keywords: Evaluating Forecasts; Government Forecasting; Macroeconomic Forecasts; Forecast Encompassing; Deficit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207014001435
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:312-324

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.08.014

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman

More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haili He ().

 
Page updated 2020-08-25
Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:312-324