A further analysis of the conference board’s new Leading Economic Index

Kajal Lahiri and Liu Yang

International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, vol. 31, issue 2, 446-453

Abstract: We examine the marginal effect of replacing M2 with the Leading Credit Index in TCB’s latest comprehensive benchmark revision of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators using a number of appropriate diagnostic measures, and re-affirm the relative superiority of the new leading index from the standpoint of business cycle forecasting.

Keywords: Leading economic indicators; The conference board; Calibration; Resolution; Discrimination; Receiver operating characteristic curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:446-453

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.12.006

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