A simple approach to projecting the electoral college

Joshua T. Putnam

International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, vol. 31, issue 3, 910-915

Abstract: The following research note examines the utility of a simpler method of projecting the winners of the various states within the United States Electoral College system. While more advanced models may be able to center on state-level presidential winners earlier in an election year, those models, among others, continue to be confounded by states where the lead is small and/or not clear. This research will demonstrate that over the course of the elections from 2000 to 2012, a simple weighted average identifies state winners as well as the more complex models.

Keywords: Electoral votes; Public opinion polling; Presidential elections; United States; Weighted average (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:3:p:910-915

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.002

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