What affects the predictions of private forecasters? The role of central bank forecasts in Chile

Michael Pedersen

International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, vol. 31, issue 4, 1043-1055

Abstract: This study utilizes Chilean data for analyzing the factors that affect the expectations of private forecasters (PFs), and, in particular, for determining whether they are influenced by the Central Bank of Chile’s (CBC’s) forecasts. Robust evidence suggests that short-term inflation expectations are influenced directly by the CBC’s forecasts, while the evidence is weaker for medium-term predictions. This is the case even though the CBC’s short-term inflation forecasts do not seem to contain any additional information that is of use for PFs when making their predictions. PFs’ short-term growth expectations seem to incorporate the CBC’s forecasts only when they are published in the second half of the year, when the CBC may have private information, e.g., about future data revisions.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Survey of professional forecasters; Central bank projections; Inflation and growth forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:4:p:1043-1055

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.004

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