Herding behavior of business cycle forecasters

Jan-Christoph Rülke, Maria Silgoner and Julia Wörz
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Julia Maria Woerz ()

International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, vol. 32, issue 1, 23-33

Abstract: Using a large international data set, we analyze whether business cycle forecasters herd or anti-herd. In general, we find evidence for anti-herding, i.e. forecasters appear to scatter their forecasts deliberately away from the forecasts of others. Anti-herding tends to be more prevalent for the longer (next year) horizon. There is some evidence for a reduced level of anti-herding at times of increased forecast uncertainty and when the forecasts are being revised more substantially.

Keywords: Anti-herding; Business cycle; Forecasting; Economic uncertainty; Herding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:32:y:2016:i:1:p:23-33

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.02.004

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