A comparison of wavelet networks and genetic programming in the context of temperature derivatives

Antonis K. Alexandridis, Michael Kampouridis and Sam Cramer

International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, vol. 33, issue 1, 21-47

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to develop a model that describes the dynamics of the daily average temperature accurately in the context of weather derivatives pricing. More precisely, we compare two state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, namely wavelet networks and genetic programming, with the classic linear approaches that are used widely in the pricing of temperature derivatives in the financial weather market, as well as with various machine learning benchmark models such as neural networks, radial basis functions and support vector regression. The accuracy of the valuation process depends on the accuracy of the temperature forecasts. Our proposed models are evaluated and compared, both in-sample and out-of-sample, in various locations where weather derivatives are traded. Furthermore, we expand our analysis by examining the stability of the forecasting models relative to the forecasting horizon. Our findings suggest that the proposed nonlinear methods outperform the alternative linear models significantly, with wavelet networks ranking first, and that they can be used for accurate weather derivative pricing in the weather market.

Keywords: Weather derivatives; Wavelet networks; Temperature derivatives; Genetic programming; Modelling; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207016300711
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:1:p:21-47

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.07.002

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman

More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().