Comment on “How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?”

Edward N. Gamber and Jeffrey P. Liebner

International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, vol. 33, issue 2, 560-562

Abstract: In this comment on “How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?” by Neil R. Ericsson, we investigate the sensitivity of the “bare-bones” application of the impulse indicator saturation technique. We offer an alternative but complementary interpretation of Ericsson’s findings of bias in government debt forecasts. Our findings reinforce his interpretation of the role of the IIS technique as a general diagnostic tool for detecting model misspecification.

Keywords: Impulse indicator saturation; Forecast bias; Model misspecification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:2:p:560-562

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.11.003

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