Does fiscal responsibility matter? Evidence from public and private forecasters in Italy
Elisenda Paluzie () and
Raul Ramos ()
International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, vol. 33, issue 3, 694-706
Nowadays, fiscal forecasts are a centerpiece of macroeconomic policy decisions, particularly in highly indebted European Union countries such as Italy. The Stability and Convergence Programs and the new Fiscal Compact seem to have improved fiscal responsibility, but have they facilitated a greater accuracy of fiscal forecasters? We have compiled a new data set of fiscal forecasts for Italy, covering the last two decades 1992–2014, and checked whether the improvement in fiscal responsibility has reduced forecast errors. Neither the improvement in fiscal responsibility nor the political reforms reduced the optimistic bias in the fiscal projections of public and private forecasters.
Keywords: Fiscal forecasting; Fiscal responsibility; Forecast accuracy; Public and private forecasters; Evaluating forecasts; Government forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:694-706
Access Statistics for this article
International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman
More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haili He ().