Does fiscal responsibility matter? Evidence from public and private forecasters in Italy
Elisenda Paluzie () and
Raul Ramos ()
International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, vol. 33, issue 3, 694-706
Nowadays, fiscal forecasts are a centerpiece of macroeconomic policy decisions, particularly in highly indebted European Union countries such as Italy. The Stability and Convergence Programs and the new Fiscal Compact seem to have improved fiscal responsibility, but have they facilitated a greater accuracy of fiscal forecasters? We have compiled a new data set of fiscal forecasts for Italy, covering the last two decades 1992–2014, and checked whether the improvement in fiscal responsibility has reduced forecast errors. Neither the improvement in fiscal responsibility nor the political reforms reduced the optimistic bias in the fiscal projections of public and private forecasters.
Keywords: Fiscal forecasting; Fiscal responsibility; Forecast accuracy; Public and private forecasters; Evaluating forecasts; Government forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:694-706
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