EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Does fiscal responsibility matter? Evidence from public and private forecasters in Italy

Laura Carabotta, Elisenda Paluzie () and Raul Ramos ()

International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, vol. 33, issue 3, 694-706

Abstract: Nowadays, fiscal forecasts are a centerpiece of macroeconomic policy decisions, particularly in highly indebted European Union countries such as Italy. The Stability and Convergence Programs and the new Fiscal Compact seem to have improved fiscal responsibility, but have they facilitated a greater accuracy of fiscal forecasters? We have compiled a new data set of fiscal forecasts for Italy, covering the last two decades 1992–2014, and checked whether the improvement in fiscal responsibility has reduced forecast errors. Neither the improvement in fiscal responsibility nor the political reforms reduced the optimistic bias in the fiscal projections of public and private forecasters.

Keywords: Fiscal forecasting; Fiscal responsibility; Forecast accuracy; Public and private forecasters; Evaluating forecasts; Government forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207017300328
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:694-706

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman

More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

 
Page updated 2019-04-20
Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:694-706