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Does the foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?

Marcin Kolasa () and Michał Rubaszek ()

International Journal of Forecasting, 2018, vol. 34, issue 4, 809-821

Abstract: This paper evaluates the forecasting performances of several small open-economy DSGE models relative to a closed-economy benchmark using a long span of data for Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom. We find that opening the model economy usually does not improve the quality of point and density forecasts for key domestic variables, and can even cause it to deteriorate. We show that this result can be attributed largely to an increase in the forecast error due to the more sophisticated structure of the extended setup, which is not compensated for by a better model specification. This claim is based on a Monte Carlo experiment in which an open-economy model fails to beat its closed-economy benchmark consistently even if the former is the true data generating process.

Keywords: Forecasting; New open economy macroeconomics; Bayesian estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:4:p:809-821