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What determines forecasters’ forecasting errors?

Ingmar Nolte (), Sandra Nolte (Lechner) () and Winfried Pohlmeier

International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, vol. 35, issue 1, 11-24

Abstract: This paper contributes to the growing body of literature in macroeconomics and finance on expectation formation and information processing by analyzing the relationship between expectation formation at the individual level and the prediction of macroeconomic aggregates. Using information from business tendency surveys, we present a new approach of analyzing forecasters’ qualitative forecasting errors. Based on a quantal response approach with misclassification, we define forecasters’ qualitative mispredictions in terms of deviations from the qualitative rational expectation forecast, and relate them to the individual and macro factors that are driving these mispredictions. Our approach permits a detailed analysis of individual forecasting decisions, allowing for the introduction of individual and economy-wide determinants that affect the individual forecasting error process.

Keywords: Expectations; Tendency survey; Forecasting errors; Misclassification; GLARMA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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