 Long-term forecasting of fuel demand at theater entry pointsBenjamin J. Lobo, Donald E. Brown and Peter J. Grazaitis International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, vol. 35, issue 2, 502-520 Abstract: Managing the distribution of fuel in theater requires Army fuel planners to forecast demand at the strategic level to ensure that fuel will be in the right place, at the right time, and in the amounts needed. This work presents a simulation approach to forecasting that accounts for the structure of the supply chain network when aggregating the demand of war fighters across the theater over the forecasting horizon. The resulting empirical distribution of demand at the theater entry point enables planners to identify forecast characteristics that impact their planning process, including the amplitudes and temporal positions of peaks in demand, and the estimated lead time to the point of use. Experimentation indicates that the forecasts are sensitive to the pattern of war fighter demand, the precise structure of the in-theater supply chain network, and the constraints and uncertainty present in the network, all of which are critical planning considerations. Keywords: Demand forecasting; Long term forecasting; Simulation; Army logistics; Fuel supply chain (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:2:p:502-520 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.001 Access Statistics for this article International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier |
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