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Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions

Peter McAdam and Anders Warne

International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, vol. 35, issue 2, 580-600

Abstract: We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets and Wouters model, and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a measure of the external finance premium. The second allows for the extensive labor-market margin and adds the unemployment rate to the observables. The main question that we address is whether these extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation forecasts and the period around the Great Recession. The labor market extension improves the medium- to longer-term real GDP growth and shorter- to medium-term inflation forecasts weakly compared with the benchmark model.

Keywords: Bayesian inference; DSGE models; Forecast comparison; Inflation; Output; Predictive likelihood (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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