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Some observations on forecasting and policy

Jonathan H. Wright

International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, vol. 35, issue 3, 1186-1192

Abstract: This paper offers some thoughts on the use of macroeconomic and financial forecasts in monetary and fiscal policy. It stresses the role of nowcasting in constructing good forecasts: most of the value added in macreoeconomic forecasts comes from getting a good approximation to the jumping-off point. Some specific applications are discussed: long-range debt/GDP projections and forecasting recessions using asset prices. I also discuss the construction and use of density forecasts.

Keywords: Forecasts; Nowcasts; Interest rates; Surveys; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:3:p:1186-1192