Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?

Michael Clements

International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, vol. 35, issue 4, 1240-1249

Abstract: We consider whether it is possible to determine if macro forecasters are attempting to forecast first estimates of data, or revised estimates. Our approach requires that data revisions are predictable prior to the first estimate being released. There is some evidence that this condition is met for some series, and that some forecasters put some weight on later estimates for consumers’ expenditure and the GDP deflator.

Keywords: Survey expectations; Data vintages; Advance estimates; Revised data; Growth forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Working Paper: Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data? (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1240-1249

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.11.009

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