Model-based pre-election polling for national and sub-national outcomes in the US and UK

Benjamin E. Lauderdale, Delia Bailey, Jack Blumenau and Douglas Rivers

International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, vol. 36, issue 2, 399-413

Abstract: We describe a strategy for applying multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) methods to pre-election polling. Using a combination of contemporaneous polling, census data, past election polling, past election results, and other sources of information, we are able to construct probabilistic, internally consistent estimates of national votes and the sub-national electoral districts that determine seats or electoral votes in many electoral systems. We report on the performance of the general framework in three applications that were conducted and released publicly in advance of the 2016 UK Referendum on EU Membership, the 2016 US Presidential Election, and the 2017 UK General Election.

Keywords: Election forecasting; Polling; UK politics; US politics; Multilevel regression and stratification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:2:p:399-413

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.012

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