Forecasting the urban skyline with extreme value theory

Jonathan Auerbach and Phyllis Wan

International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, vol. 36, issue 3, 814-828

Abstract: The world’s urban population is expected to grow fifty percent by the year 2050 and exceed six billion. The major challenges confronting cities, such as sustainability, safety, and equality, will depend on the infrastructure developed to accommodate the increase. Urban planners have long debated the consequences of vertical expansion—the concentration of residents by constructing tall buildings—over horizontal expansion—the dispersal of residents by extending urban boundaries. Yet relatively little work has predicted the vertical expansion of cities and quantified the likelihood and therefore urgency of these consequences.

Keywords: Demographic forecasting; Long term forecasting; Probability forecasting; Government forecasting; Population forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:3:p:814-828

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.004

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