Data revisions to German national accounts: Are initial releases good nowcasts?

Till Strohsal and Elias Wolf

International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, vol. 36, issue 4, 1252-1259

Abstract: Data revisions to national accounts pose a serious challenge to policy decision making. Well-behaved revisions should be unbiased, small, and unpredictable. This article shows that revisions to German national accounts are biased, large, and predictable. Moreover, with use of filtering techniques designed to process data subject to revisions, the real-time forecasting performance of initial releases can be increased by up to 23%. For total real GDP growth, however, the initial release is an optimal forecast. Yet, given the results for disaggregated variables, the averaging out of biases and inefficiencies at the aggregate GDP level appears to be good luck rather than good forecasting.

Keywords: Revisions; Real-time data; German national accounts; Nowcasting; News; Noise (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:4:p:1252-1259

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.006

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