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Forecasting with news sentiment: Evidence with UK newspapers

Dooruj Rambaccussing () and Andrzej Kwiatkowski

International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, vol. 36, issue 4, 1501-1516

Abstract: We investigate the performance of newspapers for forecasting inflation, output and unemployment in the United Kingdom. We concentrate on whether the economic policy content reported in popular printed media can improve on existing point forecasts. We find no evidence supporting improved nowcasts or short-term forecasts for inflation. The sentiment inferred from printed media, can however be useful for forecasting unemployment and output. Considerable improvements are also noted when using individual newspapers and keyword based indices.

Keywords: Textual econometrics; Economic sentiments; Economic news; Inflation; Inflation reports; Output growth; Newspapers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.04.002

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:4:p:1501-1516