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Measuring and forecasting retail trade in real time using card transactional data

Juan R. García, Matías Pacce, Tomasa Rodrigo, Pep Ruiz de Aguirre and Camilo A. Ulloa

International Journal of Forecasting, 2021, vol. 37, issue 3, 1235-1246

Abstract: We build big data retail trade indicators for Spain using high-dimensional card transaction data from one of the country’s biggest banks. The resulting indicators replicate the dynamics of the Spanish retail trade indices (RTI), regional RTIs (Spain’s autonomous regions), and RTI by retailer type (distribution classes) released by the Spanish National Statistics Institute. The new indicators not only have a higher frequency (daily data) and higher geographical and sectorial breakdown but are also shown to improve nowcasting and forecasting power for the official RTI, making them key variables to monitor consumption.

Keywords: Retail sales; Big data; Electronic payments; Consumption; Structural time series model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.005

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:37:y:2021:i:3:p:1235-1246