FFORMPP: Feature-based forecast model performance prediction

Thiyanga S. Talagala, Feng Li () and Yanfei Kang

International Journal of Forecasting, 2022, vol. 38, issue 3, 920-943

Abstract: This paper introduces a novel meta-learning algorithm for time series forecast model performance prediction. We model the forecast error as a function of time series features calculated from historical time series with an efficient Bayesian multivariate surface regression approach. The minimum predicted forecast error is then used to identify an individual model or a combination of models to produce the final forecasts. It is well known that the performance of most meta-learning models depends on the representativeness of the reference dataset used for training. In such circumstances, we augment the reference dataset with a feature-based time series simulation approach, namely GRATIS, to generate a rich and representative time series collection. The proposed framework is tested using the M4 competition data and is compared against commonly used forecasting approaches. Our approach provides comparable performance to other model selection and combination approaches but at a lower computational cost and a higher degree of interpretability, which is important for supporting decisions. We also provide useful insights regarding which forecasting models are expected to work better for particular types of time series, the intrinsic mechanisms of the meta-learners, and how the forecasting performance is affected by various factors.

Keywords: Forecasting; Performance prediction; Meta-learning; Time series simulation; Surface regression; M4 competition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:38:y:2022:i:3:p:920-943

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.07.002

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