Nowcasting food inflation with a massive amount of online prices

Paweł Macias, Damian Stelmasiak and Karol Szafranek

International Journal of Forecasting, 2023, vol. 39, issue 2, 809-826

Abstract: The consensus in the literature on providing accurate inflation forecasts underlines the importance of precise nowcasts. In this paper, we focus on this issue by employing a unique, extensive dataset of online food and non-alcoholic beverages prices gathered automatically from the webpages of major online retailers in Poland since 2009. We perform a real-time nowcasting experiment by using a highly disaggregated framework among popular, simple univariate approaches. We demonstrate that pure estimates of online price changes are already effective in nowcasting food inflation, but accounting for online food prices in a simple, recursively optimized model delivers further gains in the nowcast accuracy. Our framework outperforms various other approaches, including judgmental methods, traditional benchmarks, and model combinations. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, its nowcasting quality has improved compared to other approaches and remained comparable with judgmental nowcasts. We also show that nowcast accuracy increases with the volume of online data, but their quality and relevance are essential for providing accurate in-sample fit and out-of-sample nowcasts. We conclude that online prices can markedly aid the decision-making process at central banks.

Keywords: Inflation nowcasting; Online prices; Big data; Nowcasting competition; Web scraping (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:39:y:2023:i:2:p:809-826

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.02.007

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