fETSmcs: Feature-based ETS model component selection

Lingzhi Qi, Xixi Li, Qiang Wang and Suling Jia

International Journal of Forecasting, 2023, vol. 39, issue 3, 1303-1317

Abstract: The well-developed ETS (ExponenTial Smoothing, or Error, Trend, Seasonality) method incorporates a family of exponential smoothing models in state space representation and is widely used for automatic forecasting. The existing ETS method uses information criteria for model selection by choosing an optimal model with the smallest information criterion among all models fitted to a given time series. The ETS method under such a model selection scheme suffers from computational complexity when applied to large-scale time series data. To tackle this issue, we propose an efficient approach to ETS model selection by training classifiers on simulated data to predict appropriate model component forms for a given time series. We provide a simulation study to show the model selection ability of the proposed approach on simulated data. We evaluate our approach on the widely used M4 forecasting competition dataset in terms of both point forecasts and prediction intervals. To demonstrate the practical value of our method, we showcase the performance improvements from our approach on a monthly hospital dataset.

Keywords: ETS; Model component selection; Time series features; M4 dataset; Hospital dataset (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:39:y:2023:i:3:p:1303-1317

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.06.004

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