How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries

Oguzhan Cepni and Michael Clements

International Journal of Forecasting, 2024, vol. 40, issue 1, 160-183

Abstract: We consider whether inflation is a ‘global phenomenon’ for European emerging market economies, as has been claimed for advanced or high-income countries. We find that a global inflation factor accounts for more than half of the variance in the national inflation rates, and show that forecasting models of national headline inflation rates that include global inflation factors generally produce more accurate path forecasts than Phillips curve-type models and models with local inflation factors. Our results are qualitatively unaffected by allowing for sparsity and non-linearity in the factor forecasting models. We also provide some insight as to why global factors are an important determinant of domestic inflation, by considering the country-level characteristics that tend to increase the importance of global factors for domestic inflation.

Keywords: Global inflation; Common factors; Forecasting; Inflation spillovers; Machine learning; Variable selection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207023000080
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: How Local is the Local Inflation Factor? Evidence from Emerging European Countries (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:160-183

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.008

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman

More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().