A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems

Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Tim Gåsste and Håvard Hegre

International Journal of Forecasting, 2024, vol. 40, issue 1, 96-112

Abstract: We review and compare conflict early warning systems on three dimensions: transparency and accessibility, key parameters, and forecasts. The review reveals a need for improved transparency and accessibility of data and code, considerable variation in key parameters across systems, and significant overlaps in countries with the highest risk. We propose that developing standards and platforms that promote transparency, accessibility, and inter-system cooperation can improve knowledge proliferation and system development to mitigate and prevent political violence.

Keywords: Conflict early warning systems; Conflict forecasting; Armed conflict; Review article; Research transparency and data accessibility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:96-112

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.001

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