Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?

Michael Clements

International Journal of Forecasting, 2024, vol. 40, issue 3, 1238-1254

Abstract: The expectations-augmented Phillips curve (PC) is a cornerstone of many macroeconomic models. We consider the extent to which professional forecasters’ inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are ‘theory consistent’, and find much heterogeneity. Perceptions about the responsiveness of inflation to the unemployment rate are shown to depend on whether the respondent was active earlier or later during the period 1981–2019, and on whether the respondent happened to forecast at times of tight labour markets.

Keywords: Inflation forecasting; Phillips curve; Model heterogeneity; Forecast disagreement; Theory consistency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:3:p:1238-1254

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.11.004

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