Forecasting adversarial actions using judgment decomposition-recomposition

Yolanda Gomez, Jesus Rios, David Rios Insua and Jose Vila

International Journal of Forecasting, 2025, vol. 41, issue 1, 76-91

Abstract: In domains such as homeland security, cybersecurity, and competitive marketing, it is frequently the case that analysts need to forecast actions by other intelligent agents that impact the problem of interest. Standard structured expert judgment elicitation techniques may fall short in this type of problem as they do not explicitly take into account intentionality. We present a decomposition technique based on adversarial risk analysis followed by a behavioural recomposition using discrete choice models that facilitate such elicitation process and illustrate its reasonable performance through behavioural experiments.

Keywords: Structured expert judgment; Adversarial risk analysis; Discrete choice models; Behavioural experiments; Decision analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:41:y:2025:i:1:p:76-91

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.03.004

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