Election forecasting: Political economy models

Michael S. Lewis-Beck, John Kenny, Debra Leiter, Andreas Erwin Murr, Onyinye B. Ogili, Mary Stegmaier and Charles Tien

International Journal of Forecasting, 2025, vol. 41, issue 4, 1655-1665

Abstract: We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely known approach; however, the lesser-known political economy models take a different scientific tack, relying on regression analysis and voting theory, particularly the force of “fundamentals.” We begin our discussion with two advanced industrial democracies, the US and UK. We then examine two less frequently forecasted cases, Mexico and Ghana, to highlight the potential for political-economic forecasting and the challenges faced. In evaluating the performance of political economy models, we argue for their accuracy but do not neglect lead time, parsimony, and transparency. Furthermore, we suggest how the political economic approach can be adapted to the changing landscape that democratic electorates face.

Keywords: Election forecasting; Political economy models; Presidential elections; Parliamentary elections; Advanced democracies; Developing democracies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:41:y:2025:i:4:p:1655-1665

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.02.006

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