Deep learning and NLP in cryptocurrency forecasting: Integrating financial, blockchain, and social media data

Vincent Gurgul, Stefan Lessmann and Wolfgang Karl Härdle

International Journal of Forecasting, 2025, vol. 41, issue 4, 1666-1695

Abstract: We introduce novel approaches to cryptocurrency price forecasting, leveraging Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, with a focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. By analysing news and social media content, primarily from Twitter and Reddit, we assess the impact of public sentiment on cryptocurrency markets. A distinctive feature of our methodology is the application of the BART MNLI zero-shot classification model to detect bullish and bearish trends, significantly advancing beyond traditional sentiment analysis. Additionally, we systematically compare a range of pre-trained and fine-tuned deep learning NLP models against conventional dictionary-based sentiment analysis methods. Another key contribution of our work is the adoption of local extrema alongside daily price movements as predictive targets, reducing trading frequency and portfolio volatility. Our findings demonstrate that integrating textual data into cryptocurrency price forecasting not only improves forecasting accuracy but also consistently enhances the profitability and Sharpe ratio across various validation scenarios, particularly when applying deep learning NLP techniques. The entire codebase of our experiments is available via an online repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/crypto-forecasting-public.

Keywords: Cryptocurrency price forecasting; Machine learning; Deep learning; Natural language processing; Market sentiment analysis; Social media analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:41:y:2025:i:4:p:1666-1695

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.02.007

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