 Combining predictive distributions for time-to-event outcomes in meteorologyCéline Cunen, Thea Roksvåg, Claudio Heinrich-Mertsching and Alex Lenkoski International Journal of Forecasting, 2026, vol. 42, issue 2, 673-690 Abstract: Combining forecasts from multiple numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has shown substantial benefit over the use of individual forecast products. Although combination, in a broad sense, is widely used in meteorological forecasting, systematic studies of combination methodology in meteorology are scarce. In this article, we study several combination methods, both state-of-the-art and of our own making, with a particular emphasis on situations where one seeks to predict when a particular event of interest will occur. Such time-to-event forecasts require particular methodology and care. We conduct a careful comparison of the different combination methods through an extensive simulation study, where we investigate the conditions under which the combined forecast will outperform the individual forecasting products. Further, we investigate the performance of the methods in a case study modelling the time to the first hard freeze in Norway and parts of Fennoscandia. Keywords: Forecast combination; Frost modelling; Numerical weather prediction; Probabilistic forecasts; Survival analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:42:y:2026:i:2:p:673-690 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.10.004 Access Statistics for this article International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier |
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