Prison, semi-liberty and recidivism: Bounding causal effects in a survival model

Benjamin Monnery, François-Charles Wolff and Anaïs Henneguelle

International Review of Law and Economics, 2020, vol. 61, issue C

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of semi-liberty as an alternative to prison on recidivism in France. Our analysis is based on a unique dataset comprising 1445 offenders, all eligible to semi-liberty. In the absence of an instrumental variable affecting access to semi-liberty but unrelated to recidivism, we turn to selection-on-observable methods as well as sensitivity analyses to bound the causal effect of interest. Our results under treatment exogeneity (Cox regressions) and conditional independence (entropy balancing matching) show that semi-liberty is associated with a reduction of 22%–31% in offenders’ hazard of recidivism in the five years after release. The estimated effects decrease, but remain negative and significant when credible confounders are introduced. Overall, our analysis lends strong support for a beneficial effect of semi-liberty compared to prison.

Keywords: Recidivism; Semi-liberty; Halfway houses; Prison; Survival analyses; Sensitivity analyses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C18 K14 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model (2020)
Working Paper: Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model (2019)
Working Paper: Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model (2019)
Working Paper: Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model (2018)
Working Paper: Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:irlaec:v:61:y:2020:i:c:s0144818819302418

DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2019.105884

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