 Optimism and pessimism in bargaining and contestsErya Yang International Review of Law and Economics, 2020, vol. 64, issue C Abstract: This paper uses the rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU) model to capture the effects of optimism and pessimism on the choice between a pre-trial settlement and a trial (or more generally, between a private settlement and a litigation). These two legal procedures are described as a bargaining game and a contest game, respectively. My models predict that a contest occurs if the aggregate optimism premium in a contest (AOPC) is sufficiently high. I also find that the AOPC tends to be higher for close cases. Such predictions are consistent with the Priest-Klein empirical observation that a plaintiff's winning probability is often near 50% in many areas of civil litigation. I also show that the highest levels of effort in both a bargaining game and a contest game are exerted when one is moderately optimistic. However, excessive optimism will reduce one's effort level, and hence, one's winning rate. As a result, when faced with an excessively optimistic party, a risk-neutral party may prefer a contest over bargaining. Keywords: Rank-dependent expected utility; Optimism; Conflict; Contest; Bargaining; Litigation; Priest-Klein hypothesis (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:irlaec:v:64:y:2020:i:c:s0144818820301484 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2020.105935 Access Statistics for this article International Review of Law and Economics is currently edited by C. Ott, A. W. Katz and H-B. Schäfer More articles in International Review of Law and Economics from Elsevier |
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