 The state of Africa's air transport market amid COVID-19, and forecasts for recoveryTassew Dufera Tolcha Journal of Air Transport Management, 2023, vol. 108, issue C Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has raised air transport stakeholders' concerns about the state of the market, the potential timing of recovery, and recouping long-haul traffic. Passengers’ travel confidence must be restored, and air travel safety awareness raised. This paper estimates the immediate and long-term effects of COVID-19 on air transport markets and forecasts timescales for recovery of the markets for domestic and international flights in nine African countries. Intervention analysis and SARIMAX are employed for the analysis, using monthly time-series data from August 2003 to December 2021. The empirical results show that air transport is significantly elastic to the pandemic. It is forecast that air transport recovery may take around 28 months for domestic flights and 34 months for international flights, starting from 2020. The simulation analysis suggests that passenger flights may rebound to pre-crisis levels between 2022 and 2023. In general, the pandemic-induced fluctuations in the aviation market and the nature of the rebound may be considered to be part of a cyclical process rather than a structural change. Keywords: Air transport; COVID-19; Africa; Aviation recovery (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:108:y:2023:i:c:s0969699723000236 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2023.102380 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Air Transport Management is currently edited by Anne Graham More articles in Journal of Air Transport Management from Elsevier |
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