Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation

Tobias Grosche, Franz Rothlauf and Armin Heinzl

Journal of Air Transport Management, 2007, vol. 13, issue 4, 175-183

Abstract: This paper presents two gravity models for the estimation of air passenger volume between city-pairs. The models include variables describing the general economic activity and geographical characteristics of city-pairs instead of variables describing air service characteristics. Thus, both models can be applied to city-pairs where currently no air service is established, historical data is not available, or for which factors describing the current service level of air transportation are not accessible or accurately predictable. One model is limited to city-pairs with airports not subject to competition from airports in the vicinity, while the other model includes all city-pairs. Booking data of flights between Germany and 28 European countries is used for calibration. Both models show a good fit to the observed data and are statistically tested and validated.

Keywords: Passenger volume estimation; Gravity model; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (86)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:13:y:2007:i:4:p:175-183

DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2007.02.001

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