Forecasting air passengers at São Paulo International Airport using a mixture of local experts model

Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel

Journal of Air Transport Management, 2013, vol. 26, issue C, 35-39

Abstract: An integrated mixture of local experts model is employed to forecast air passengers at São Paulo International Airport. Such approach is normally used in rapidly changing situations, i.e., when the time series presents turning points or any kind of structural change and allows the development of forecasting models that takes into account the heterogeneity of the mapping structure into different regions of the input space. The model is validated using out-of-sample data, and the accuracy of the generated predictions proves to be satisfactory. An assessment of uncertainty in the predictions is made, as well as long lead-time forecasts employing the built model, considering different scenarios.

Keywords: Airport planning; Long-term forecasting; Rapidly changing situations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699712001275
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:26:y:2013:i:c:p:35-39

DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2012.10.001

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Air Transport Management is currently edited by Anne Graham

More articles in Journal of Air Transport Management from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().