Nonlinear vector auto-regression neural network for forecasting air passenger flow

Shaolong Sun, Hongxu Lu, Kwok-Leung Tsui and Shouyang Wang

Journal of Air Transport Management, 2019, vol. 78, issue C, 54-62

Abstract: Forecasting air passenger flows is receiving increasing attention, especially due to its intrinsic difficulties and wide applications. Total passengers are used as a proxy for air transport demand. However, the time series of air passenger flows usually has complicated behavior with high volatility and irregularity. This paper proposes a MIV-based nonlinear vector auto-regression neural network (NVARNN) approach to forecast air passenger flows. In the proposed MIV-NVARNN learning approach, (1) a method of mean impact value (MIV) based on neural network is used for identifying and extracting input variables; (2) NVARNN is firstly proposed to deal with the irregularity and volatility of the time series of air passenger flows. To illustrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we tested its directional and level forecasting accuracy using the time series of Beijing International Airport's passenger flows. The results of out-of-sample forecasting performance show that the proposed MIV-NVARNN approach consistently outperforms single models and other hybrid approaches in terms of level forecasting accuracy, directional forecasting accuracy and robustness analysis.

Keywords: Air passenger flow forecasting; Nonlinear vector auto-regression; Multilayer perceptron neural network; Competition over resources algorithm; Mean impact value (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:78:y:2019:i:c:p:54-62

DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2019.04.005

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