 Flying into the future: A scenario-based analysis of carbon emissions from China's civil aviationXiao Liu, Ye Hang, Qunwei Wang () and Dequn Zhou Journal of Air Transport Management, 2020, vol. 85, issue C Abstract: Aviation emissions will significantly affect climate change with the continued growth of the air transport. This study decomposes the drivers influencing China's civil aviation carbon emissions change in the period from 1985 to 2015. Emission trends are predicted using a Monte Carlo simulation. The results show a peak and reduction in the period between 2016 and 2030. Results also show that air transportation revenue growth is associated with increasing historical carbon emissions, while rising industry energy intensity significantly hampers carbon emissions reduction. The carbon intensity (CI) reduction goals were achieved in the different scenarios before 2020, but the carbon emissions peak target before 2030 can only be achieved under the technological breakthrough scenario (TBS). The reduction of air transport growth rate and promotion of new energy technologies are two essential strategies to reduce carbon emissions in the foreseeing future. Keywords: Civil aviation; Carbon emissions; Decomposition analysis; Scenario analysis; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:85:y:2020:i:c:s0969699719301401 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101793 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Air Transport Management is currently edited by Anne Graham More articles in Journal of Air Transport Management from Elsevier |
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