Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding

Christian Pierdzioch, Jan-Christoph Rülke and Georg Stadtmann

Japan and the World Economy, 2011, vol. 23, issue 4, 253-258

Abstract: We analyze forecasts of car sales in the U.S. and forecasts of car registrations in Japan. We document a substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, and we show that, based on traditional criteria, forecasts are neither rational nor unbiased. We also report that forecasters anti-herd, that is, forecasters seem to intentionally scatter their forecasts around a consensus forecast. We further show that cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecasts with regard to anti-herding transmits onto cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecast accuracy. Specifically, we document that forecasters who herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who anti-herd.

Keywords: Automobile industry; Forecasting; Japan and the United States; Forecast accuracy; Herding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 E27 L62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0922142511000375
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:japwor:v:23:y:2011:i:4:p:253-258

DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2011.09.002

Access Statistics for this article

Japan and the World Economy is currently edited by Robert Dekle and Yasushi Hamao

More articles in Japan and the World Economy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().