Application of the Tobit model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity for foreign exchange market interventions
Kuang-Liang Chang and
Japan and the World Economy, 2012, vol. 24, issue 4, 274-282
In this empirical study, we apply the Tobit-GARCH model to investigate the intervention function of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the JPY/USD exchange market. The proposed model has the advantage of handling intervention data with both a majority of zero observations and conditional heteroscedasticity. Thus, the model provides better estimates of the intervention function than such conventional models as the standard Tobit, OLS, Probit, and traditional GARCH models. Results show that the intervention behavior of the BoJ is affected more by its half-year long-term target than its previous-day short-term target, and the BoJ generally follows the policy of “leaning against the wind”. The US-JP interest rate spread was never a trigger of BoJ's interventions during the sample period. The BoJ did not respond to the domestic stock index by the sales-intervention of the JPY, even when the economy was sluggish during the lost decade (1992–2004). However, its intervention behavior was significantly affected by U.S. interventions and was significantly persistent across some of the periods.
Keywords: Tobit GARCH; Central bank intervention; Bank of Japan; Censored data; Probit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:4:p:274-282
Access Statistics for this article
Japan and the World Economy is currently edited by Robert Dekle and Yasushi Hamao
More articles in Japan and the World Economy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haili He ().