Why is the forecast error of quarterly GDP in Japan so large? – From an international comparison of quarterly GDP forecast situation

Yasuyuki Komaki

Japan and the World Economy, 2023, vol. 66, issue C

Abstract: We examined the accuracy of prediction of Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States from the viewpoint of forecast errors. Compared with the forecast error of each country at the around same time, the forecast error of Japan is about 2 times larger. In case of Japan, even immediately before release of quarterly GDP, the forecast error is over 1 %, which is the same level of forecast error as 94 days before in the United States and 135 days before in Canada.

Keywords: Forecast error; Fluctuation; Quarterly GDP; Real-time data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 C82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:japwor:v:66:y:2023:i:c:s092214252300018x

DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101192

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