Currency carry trades and global funding risk

Sara Ferreira Filipe, Juuso Nissinen and Matti Suominen

Journal of Banking & Finance, 2023, vol. 149, issue C

Abstract: We measure funding constraints in currency markets by deviations in the covered interest rate parity and funding risk by the standard deviation of the magnitude of the funding constraints. Empirically, funding risk is driven by financial sector conditions in the low interest rate countries, oil price, and the actions of the main central banks. Since 2008, funding risk has affected currency carry trading activity, carry trade returns, correlation between carry trade long and short currencies, relative equity returns, and the economic growth in the carry trade long and short countries. We develop a theory of currency markets under funding constraints to explain the phenomena. The model has additional testable implications: For instance, as funding constraints start to bind, it predicts that both the investment and the funding currencies crash relative to a safe asset. This result is observable empirically when we use gold to proxy for the safe asset.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426623000158
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:149:y:2023:i:c:s0378426623000158

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106800

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Banking & Finance is currently edited by Ike Mathur

More articles in Journal of Banking & Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().